COVID-19 cases have declined 7% in the past two weeks, state officials reported Tuesday, but they reminded Vermonters it’s not the first time cases have begun to slow under the Delta wave, only to come back in force shortly after.

Vermont reported 90 new COVID-19 cases Tuesday, lowering the seven-day average to 201 cases per day, according to Department of Health data. But Michael Pieciak, commissioner of the Department of Financial Regulation, said case levels remained “elevated.”

The state also has reported lowering case counts twice during the Delta surge — once in early September, and once in early October — that then rebounded and rose to even higher levels, he noted.

As if to prove his point, the state reported 164 new COVID-19 cases and two new deaths Wednesday.

Most of the improvement in the past week has been among vaccinated Vermonters, whose cases fell 2% in the last seven days, while unvaccinated cases rose 9%.

In the past week, not fully vaccinated Vermonters were 3.8 times more likely to get an infection and 3.8 times more likely to be hospitalized, according to the state data. On Wednesday, 54 Vermonters were in the hospital with the virus, including 13 in intensive care.

In Orleans County, which has the highest concentration of new infections in the state, the case rate for not fully vaccinated people is 4.8 times higher than vaccinated people, the data shows.

Pieciak said fatalities across the state have started to decline, with 27 deaths reported in October though Tuesday. The state forecasts declining deaths in the coming weeks. In total, 356 people in Vermont have died of COVID during the pandemic.

But then on Wednesday the state reported two more COVID-19 deaths. Those deaths represent a grim statistical milestone: 100 Vermonters have now died since July, when the more contagious Delta variant became dominant in the Northeast.

Last year, it took nine months — including a summer of sustained low infection rates — for Vermont to reach the first 100 deaths of the pandemic. This year, the Delta variant has driven the same death toll in less than four months.

In total, 358 Vermonters have died from COVID during the pandemic.

The seven-day average daily case count is 209. While that represents a sustained surge — the daily average has now remained above 200 cases for 18 consecutive days — case counts are currently in decline.

Cases in Vermont have dropped 7% over the past two weeks, according to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention analyzed by the New York Times. That’s compared to a 23% decline nationwide. Vermont ranks as the 11th-highest state in the U.S. for its rate of case growth and 16th for its per capita infection rate.

The decline in cases is a hopeful sign, officials said at Gov. Phil Scott’s weekly press conference on Tuesday, but the numbers still warrant caution. Case counts over the past two months have previously dipped only to rebound to even higher levels, said Financial Regulation Commissioner Mike Pieciak, who leads the state’s COVID modeling efforts.

Vermont’s high rate of testing plays a role in our ranking, Pieciak said. As of Tuesday, Vermont had the second-highest rate of COVID testing in the U.S. The average test positivity rate has been declining alongside the daily case average. As of Wednesday, the seven-day average positivity rate was 2.6%.

Throughout the pandemic, hospitalizations and deaths have been seen as lagging indicators because severe COVID cases can take several weeks to run their course. That means those numbers tend to remain high for weeks after cases decline.

Forecasts compiled by the CDC show cases, hospitalizations and deaths are likely to decline in the coming weeks, Pieciak said Tuesday, but those models still include “a great degree of uncertainty.”

BOOSTER SHOTS

The state continues to administer boosters for all three vaccines — Pfizer, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson — Human Services Secretary Mike Smith said. Vermonters 18 and older can get Pfizer and Moderna boosters six months after their last dose, while Johnson & Johnson boosters start after two months.

About 52,000 Vermonters have gotten an additional dose of the vaccine, Smith said. More than a quarter of Vermonters 65 and older have gotten a booster, one of the highest rates in the nation, but still relatively low compared to the vaccination rate in that age group, according to the state data.

Vermonters also can choose to get a different booster dose than the vaccine they initially received, starting last Friday at doctors’ offices and pharmacies. State-run vaccine clinics plan to allow mixing and matching starting Nov. 1, Smith said.

Gov. Phil Scott said he was going to “do homework” on which booster dose of the vaccine he wants to get. Scott received the Johnson & Johnson vaccine for his initial shot.

“We’re learning as we go; the efficacy of the vaccine is waning,” he said. “So we need to step up and make sure that we utilize the booster that is at our disposal.”

Scott responded to criticism from lawmakers and advocates, who said at a press conference Monday that the state was not doing enough to protect Vermonters.

“We’re doing everything that we should. I’m more hopeful today than I have been in weeks,” he said, referring to the booster signups and future approval of the Pfizer vaccine for 5- to 11-year-olds.

In response to calls for more restrictions, he said his state of emergency power “shouldn’t be overused and it should be used appropriately.”

At the same time, state officials called for Vermonters to celebrate Halloween safely. Dr. Mark Levine, commissioner of the Department of Health, said trick-or-treating is an outdoor activity, and other activities related to the holiday should stay outside, too.

“Whether they be campfires, costume parades, haunted hayrides, pumpkin carving — they’re all great with an outdoor option,” he said. “Keep groups small and help discourage large clusters of people,” including crowded parties.

He said parents don’t need to disinfect candy, but their children should wash their hands before eating their Halloween haul. Children and parents should also carry flashlights to prevent car accidents.

Levine said the department’s contact tracers have noticed some Vermonters are not following advice about avoiding contact with people who were exposed, or quarantining to avoid exposing others if infected themselves.

“Failure to follow these basic public health actions is a choice that can only keep community spread of the virus going, potentially endangering people,” he said.

“As much as we’d like it to be, this pandemic is not over yet.”