As a project for a government class, I decided to take a closer look at voter turnout in Cornwall in the last three presidential election cycles to see if it had any effect on state Senate races. Accordingly, I worked at the Cornwall polling center the day before election day helping to count absentee ballots (in full compliance with election regulations). This was a great experience and gave me valuable information about the measures taken to prevent voter fraud as well. Cornwall Town Clerk Laura Fetterolf was extremely helpful in my process of obtaining the data on past state senate elections, as well as the results for 2024 once they were available.

According to the data that Mrs. Fetterolf provided, the total voter turnout this year was highest of any of the years researched, but only by four voters over 2020. Similarly, the percentage of registered voters who voted was only half a percentage point higher in 2020 than in this year. In other words, turnout numbers were very similar between 2020 and 2024, although both were lower in 2016. Where things really got interesting was in the Senate race results. Republican state Senate candidates received 30% of the vote in Cornwall this year, which was the highest of any of the years surveyed, and almost 10 percentage points higher than in 2020. This was consistent with trends that emerged around the state in legislative elections this year.

As most people probably already know, 2024 was the best year for Vermont Republicans in quite a long time. In the Addison County Senate race that I was focusing on, Democratic incumbent Ruth Hardy, and Republican newcomer Steven Heffernan won a four-way race against Democratic incumbent Chris Bray and Republican challenger Landel Cochran. If the data from Cornwall is any indication, the fact that the turnout numbers were basically the same in 2024, (which was the best year for Republicans of the years examined) and in 2020, (which was the best year for Democrats) the data suggests that rather than a group of mobilized voters turning out and boosting numbers, the outlook of the voters changed. This is contrary to what I expected. I thought that for a Republican to have any chance of winning, mobilizing new voters would be vital, but voter turnout differences actually appear to have had very little to do with the differences in result.

Ben Fuller

Middlebury