VERGENNES — Although some cost and revenue variables remained to be pinned down, Addison Northwest School Districts administrators and board members are optimistic they can adopt a budget this month that would result in lower school taxes in all five district communities for the 2025-2026 Fiscal Year (FY26).

The board and administrators will continue their FY26 budget work this coming Monday in the Vergennes Union High School library at 6 p.m., when they’ll look at an updated draft, which the board could adopt then.

If not on Monday, the board has one more meeting scheduled, on Jan. 22, before it must adopt a spending plan in time to warn it for Town Meeting Day.

Last month, the board reviewed a $27,834,102 spending plan that, according to a Dec. 16 budget presentation prepared by Superintendent Sheila Soule and Director of Operations and Finances Elizabeth Jennings, would accomplish the following for ANWSD students:

“Maintains all high-level course offerings, two World Language programs, the Arts, co-curricular opportunities and athletics; prioritizes student learning to narrow the achievement gap; focuses on academic and behavior support programs; ensures inclusivity; supports all students regardless of background or challenges; (and) maintains supports for behavioral programs that nurture social-emotional skills for overall development.”

And, according to Jennings’s preliminary estimates, voter approval of the plan in March would likely mean lower school tax rates in all five ANWSD communities.

Jennings updated the estimates on Wednesday and said they could change further if new information from that state becomes available,

Assuming the board dedicates $800,000 of a total surplus of about $1.54 million from FY24 and FY23 toward tax relief, Jennings calculated this week that ANWSD school tax rates could drop by 3 cents in Ferrisburgh and Panton, 4 cents in Waltham, and 16 cents in Vergennes and Addison.

Those figures include calculations for the effect of district communities’ Common Levels of Appraisal, Jennings said.

But she also cautioned they remain subject to change, largely for two reasons.

One is the Agency of Education has yet to finalize local pupil count numbers. Jennings said her calculations use a more conservative ANWSD pupil count rather that what she believes is an education agency estimate that is too high. She told the Independent she expects a firmer education agency number at any time. Revenue to local districts is in part dependent on the number of students they educate.

The other unknown is that local districts are basing their revenue projections on a “yield number” from the statewide tax rate that won’t be known until set by the Legislature this spring.

The yield number determines how much money the statewide tax rate will raise to distribute to local school districts. Districts are now using a good-faith estimate. Jennings historically provides an accurate estimate, but the actual number remains uncertain.

This week Jennings said another factor that was up in the air in December worked in ANWSD’s favor: The cost of tuitioning students to career centers, mostly Hannaford Career Center in Middlebury, proved to be $149,000 less than Jennings’s initially conservate projection.

But changes in the CLA, or Common Level of Appraisal (an adjustment to education tax rates), outweighed those savings, she wrote on Wednesday.

“It appears that the slight movement in CLAs and the statewide adjustment for CLAs offset our decrease in the overall budget in the tax rates,” she said in an email.

The district is also still waiting to learn the amount of grant money the district will receive to support its Pre-K education program. Jennings said last week the amount of that funding remains uncertain.

One thing appears certain: Regardless of where some numbers end up, Soule said on Dec. 16 the effect of a board decision to use the surplus on the district tax rates would be unquestionable.

“You can see the trends of the impact of applying that $800,000,” she said.

Soule acknowledged using the surplus carries some risk for a shortfall during next year’s budget process, but added taking that chance would be worth it, given the education funding landscape could look entirely different by then because there’s an ongoing statewide study of the system.

“I think people would appreciate that some of that surplus is going toward reducing taxes,” Soule said. “There is a commission working on this problem, and we are hopeful something will come from the Legislature.”

BUDGET DETAILS

Overall, ANWSD’s proposed $27,834,102 budget draft would increase spending by 2.14%, or $584,102.

The board is also looking at an administrative recommendation to put the remaining $741,341 of the surplus into the district’s Capital Improvements Fund. That move would require separate voter approval in March.

Several factors driving spending higher are predictable: rising contracted salaries for teachers and staff, an 11.9% increase in the cost of providing health insurance benefits, and an 8% increase in the cost of workman’s compensation.

The Direct Instruction line item in the draft budget rose by $278,710, and the Student Support Services line item by $481,369.

The line item for Administration rose by $125,942. Jennings pointed out this category included not only the central office’s administrators, support staff and supplies and rent, but also principals’ support staff and their office supplies, plus the district’s legal and auditing fees.

Board Chair John Stroup noted, and not for the first time over the years, that ANWSD central office costs compare favorably with those of other districts.

“Our central office is the same size, or smaller, than other school districts,” Stroup said.

The budget also proposes cuts in operations and maintenance ($193,624), transportation ($104,692 — achieved by bringing more special education programming in-house) — and debt service ($18,546).

Soule said administrators looked to make cuts in “stuff, not people.”

Jennings elaborated: “Salaries are up, and everything else is down.”

Per-pupil spending under the draft budget would increase by 1.99% to $15,433, according to the estimate.

Officials were hopeful at the end of the Dec. 16 meeting that this year could go more smoothly than 2024, when three votes were necessary to pass a budget triggered — thanks also to the problematic CLAs — major tax increases.

They discussed how to communicate their final budget to district residents, along with, as always, hoping people will attend meetings in person or by Zoom.

“I think this is a story, that we were faced with some pretty high increases already baked in, and despite that, were able to come out the other side of that having been very conservative and careful,” Soule said. “It’s important to think about how we tell that story as well.”

Stroup concluded there’s a basic message to spread.

“Regardless of all the noise, we expect everyone to get a tax decrease,” Stroup said. “I think people will hear that.”