RICHARD HOPKINS

I fear that, in some important ways, we Vermonters have our heads in the sand about climate change and its likely impacts. 

Yes, all kinds of planning and legislating is happening, mostly about reducing our production of greenhouse gasses in Vermont. The more reductions, the sooner, the better. 

The transition to the future low-carbon state needs to be done carefully and thoughtfully, but we can’t wait and we can’t be sure no one will be inconvenienced during the transition. The future we are facing from climate change in Vermont and everywhere else is disastrous, and the disaster has started. Things aren’t going back to normal. It’s going to be uncomfortable and stressful for all of us at least some of the time. We will also have opportunities to do some things better than before. 

There will be direct consequences of climate change in Vermont — floods, heat waves, blizzards, tropical storms, windstorms and outbreaks of formerly tropical diseases. These are daunting enough, but are being planned for.

But more than anything I am worried about the consequences for Vermont and Vermonters of climate change elsewhere — especially sea-level rise and extreme heat. Our inland state will still have a relatively benign climate compared to those farther south. We will be an attractive destination for some of the people displaced by those direct effects. 

Some people — most prominently our governor — think Vermont needs more people, and housing for more people, and would (at least at first) welcome in-migration prompted by climate change. But I don’t see any coherent planning going on for a future in which, for argument’s sake, Vermont’s population doubles over a 10- or 20-year period. An average of 30,000 new residents each year from 2025 to 2045 would do that. We would end up with about 1.3 million people. (Maybe it will take longer, but the pattern would be the same.)

Some coastal climate migrants will move into cities farther inland, where underused office buildings could be repurposed to housing. If sea-level rise was the only problem, people might move just far enough to get away from recurrent flooding. But the effect of storms — summer and winter — means that the area of frequent inundation is likely to be well above the high-tide mark. So that will push people farther from the (former) coast. The increase in dangerously hot summer days will push people northward.

It’s not just Vermont that will likely see substantial climate-driven migration, of course. States from Maine to Minnesota and beyond are likely to experience in-migration from the combination of sea level rise, storms and excessive heat elsewhere. 

At first, climate migrants will be relatively well off, and will arrive with the proceeds of the sale of their houses and reasonable bank accounts, as well as portable job skills. But when New Jersey’s, Connecticut’s and New York’s coastal cities have flooded, over and over, then people will be unable to insure or sell their houses, many banks will fold, and there won’t be much help from the government. 

Then we will start to see refugees arriving with just what they can carry in their vehicle and no financial assets to speak of. A good comparison might be the Dust Bowl migration of the 1930s. In our own time, many thousands of people are trying to leave Central America, partly because persistent heat and drought have damaged farming and left food supplies inadequate. 

What would a Vermont with 1.3 million people look like? It wouldn’t have to be terrible — that’s about how many people New Hampshire and Maine each have now, after all — but there would be strains on schooling, health care services, drinking water supplies, wastewater treatment, air quality, housing, roads, social services, law enforcement, recreational facilities, and on and on. We should be doing contingency planning now for a Vermont with 1.3 million people by 2045 or so. The later we leave that planning, the less flexibility we will have.

Our plans for adaptation — the official term for things that we do to reduce the harm done by climate change — are currently focused heavily on dealing with flooding, storms and heat events. Those plans address the increase in population largely by making sure that new physical infrastructure is sited in ways that don’t increase harm from flooding and other disasters. 

Our plans for reducing greenhouse gas production include switching building heating from fossil fuels to electric heat pumps, replacing gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles with electric ones, conserving forestlands, and reducing methane releases associated with livestock. This is a series of heavy lifts even with a steady population. Now, consider how heavy the lifts would be with twice as many homes and twice as many vehicles. 

Here’s what might be even harder. Vermont rightly prides itself on the civility of its public life, even with noticeable income inequality and rural poverty. Adding large numbers of climate migrants is likely to make Vermont’s population much more diverse than it is now. Climate migrants are likely to include many people who were disadvantaged even before they became involuntary migrants, because of race, national origin, language or culture. The places where they lived are likely to be the first flooded and least protected. Many will be new to Vermont’s traditions in public life. An important challenge for Vermont will be to welcome all the new climate migrants, and to see them as a source of strength rather than as a problem. 

So I see at least a fourfold set of challenges:

• Reduce our own greenhouse gas production as a state as close to zero as possible even while population may be rising. 

• Adapt to the direct effects of climate change (floods, heat waves and so on) in a way that accounts for rising population.

• Plan for and build out the physical, housing, educational, health and social services infrastructure needed for a future doubled population due to climate migration.

• Celebrate our new residents and build a new state together with them.

Let’s get on with it.

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Dr. Richard Hopkins is a retired public health official who has devoted himself to volunteer activities to try to reduce climate change. He is a member of the board of the Climate Economy Action Center of Addison County, and of the town of Middlebury Energy Committee.