The biggest news of the week hailed from the Vermont Public poll released this Monday that had Gov. Phil Scott leading Democratic challenger Amanda Janoo by 10 points. That contradicted a poll out the previous week by the University of New Hampshire showing Janoo leading Scott by the same spread. What’s a Vermonter to think of those conflicting results? That the race is close, and every vote will make a difference. In short, pay attention, understand the issues and motivate others to do the same.
To that end, let’s delve into the poll results more closely to learn what’s captivating voters.
First, understand that the results of both polls were based on 817 respondents, a small sample size but large enough to be statistically accurate according to past experience (though polling is not an exact science as voters surely know.) The UNH poll had some anomalies that have skewed that poll’s results in prior years, so Vermonters might be more inclined to believe in the methodology of Vermont Public’s polling. Both polls have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4%, or a potential swing of 6.8%.
In the governor’s race, the question asked was: “If the election for Vermont’s governor were held today, would you vote for: Republican Phil Scott, Democrat/Progressive Amanda Janoo, Not Sure/No Opinion, None/Write in/Other, Independent Brian Judd, Freedom and Unity party candidate Dean Roy, Peace and Justice party candidate June Goodband.
Of the total sample, 42% chose Scott; 32% chose Janoo, 20% were undecided, 3% voted none/write-in/other, 2% were for Judd, 1% for Roy and 0% for Goodband. Of voters most likely to vote, 44% chose Scott and 34% chose Janoo, with 16% undecided and 2% in the none/other category.
A key takeaway from the poll at this stage of the race is the number of undecided voters. With 20% of the voters undecided, and 3% uncommitted, that’s a big number in a tight race; meaning there’s a lot of work to do for both campaigns. Scott has more money from out-of-state resources and Republican PACs. Pay attention to who is funding Scott’s campaign. Janoo has strength in grassroots networking, but how that plays statewide remains to be seen.
In the lieutenant governor’s race, Democrat Molly Gray leads Republican incumbent John Rodgers with 46% of likely voters favoring Gray to 37% supporting Rodgers with 15% of likely voters undecided and 3% choosing none/other.
Aside from those two races, what’s even more fascinating are the results of other key questions. Here are a few:
• When asked: What do you think is the most important problem facing the state of Vermont? 31% predictability responded with the catch-all phrase, “affordability.” A word that Democrats across the nation are now using with effect against Trump and this Republican Congress. Phil Scott has used that effectively for 10 years, but is it wearing thin after years of continued decline?
What’s the second greatest problem? Government and politics. A full 30% of Vermonters say politics, and probably the lack of accountability or trust in government (as one way to interpret that question) is the state’s biggest problem. That’s worth pondering. Have Vermont’s politics become more partisan, or has the national mess caused by a narcissistic megalomanic as president tainted politics so much, and eroded trust in government so far, that even Vermonters are soured on state affairs?
Or could it be that Gov. Scott’s controversial decision to consolidate the state’s 119 school districts into 5 large ones (and force through an out-of-state Secretary of Education appointment whose nomination was initially rejected by the Vermont legislature) has caused greater partisan animosity than previously recognized. Scott’s policy suggestions on education have certainly been unpopular, and, to most Vermonters, unworkable as well as undesirable.
Or could it be that voters are fed up with Scott’s 10 years of pandering to his “affordability” agenda, and yet the reality is a state enduring continued decline on health care, education, housing, jobs, and even renewable energy. Where once Vermont was a leader in many of those categories, we’re now mid-level among all states or heading toward the bottom. Has Scott’s lackluster performance eroded the public’s trust in government? Or is Scott’s do-nothing approach to governing, while blaming Democrats for trying to fix difficult issues (as they did with the state’s childcare shortage), wearing thin.
Whatever the reason, it’s clear Vermonters aren’t happy with the government and politics as is.
• It’s no surprise most Vermonters, 64%, disapprove of Trump’s “handling his job as president.” What’s surprising is even with Trump’s blatant corruption and self-enrichment at taxpayer’s expense, even with his bungling of the war with Iran, his abandonment of Ukraine and tacit support of Putin’s aggression, his disastrous immigration policies and undemocratic and illegal tactics with ICE and the U.S. Border Patrol, higher living costs because of idiotic trade wars and tariffs that push those tax increases onto consumers, even with his daily diatribes illustrating how unhinged and unfocused he often is — even with all that and more — 26% of Vermonters approve of his performance. Moreover, 69% of Republicans approve of the job he’s doing, while 10% of independents do. Democrats, on the other hand, reject Trump’s performance by 98%, while 82% of independent voters do. That says a lot about both parties.
• Asked the same question of Gov. Phil Scott, 45% approved of Scott’s performance, 23% weren’t sure, and 32% disapproved. Among Republicans, Scott got 58% buy-in with 20% opposed and 22% undecided. Among Democrats and Independents, the approval rate was 40% and 43%, respectively, with 40% of Democrats and 34% of independents disapproving. The upshot is Scott is facing his highest disapproval rate since being elected.
• An alarming point was made when 51% of Vermonters said they would advise an 18-year-old considering where to build a successful life and career to move out of state. Only 23% said they would advise the young person to stay in Vermont. Such a lack of confidence in the state’s future tells everyone significant change is needed.
• On education, three questions were telling: Vermonters were split on the quality of education statewide with 50% saying it was poor to only fair, 7% unsure, and 43% good to excellent. Of their local schools, 49% rated them excellent to good, 7% unsure, and 47% said poor to only fair.
When asked if school spending should be controlled at the state or local level, most favored local control. Overall, 57% wanted decisions made at the local level, with 21% siding with state level control and 21% unsure. Democrats favored local spending 53% to 25% (state) with 22% unsure, while Republicans favored local control 73% to 15% with 12% undecided. That puts Scott at odds with many Republicans.
Other questions were equally informative. We encourage readers to read the full poll results at www.vermontpublic.org/local-news/2026-09-28/poll-shows-amanda-janoo-closing-on-phil-scott-governors-race.
— Angelo Lynn